Despite Bitcoin’s recent pullback from the $100,000 mark, analysts at CryptoQuant remain bullish on the cryptocurrency, forecasting a continued upward trajectory in the coming months. According to a new report shared with CoinDesk, Bitcoin is expected to surge past the $100,000 barrier before hitting its eventual peak, with predictions suggesting the price could reach up to $147,000 if it follows historical market cycles.
CryptoQuant’s Profit and Loss (P&L) index, which uses various on-chain metrics to assess Bitcoin’s market valuation, indicates that Bitcoin is firmly in a bull market, but it has yet to reach the overbought levels seen in previous market cycles such as in 2021, 2017, and 2013. In addition, CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has only recently shown signs of a bullish trend, suggesting that the market is still in the early stages of an upward rally and is not yet overheated.
One of the key reasons for this optimism is the relatively subdued participation from retail investors. Data from CryptoQuant reveals that retail investors have been selling off Bitcoin recently, with 41,000 BTC sold since October, while large institutional investors have been increasing their holdings, adding 130,000 BTC during the same period. This suggests that the market is not being driven by speculative retail buying, which often signals an impending market peak.
Further supporting this view is the fact that Bitcoin’s realized price—an indicator of the average price at which Bitcoin was last transacted—is currently around $36,000 to $37,000. Historically, Bitcoin has topped out when its price reaches four times its realized price, which would put the upper band at around $147,000. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could easily see a significant price surge before the market cycle reaches its peak.
CryptoQuant also notes that the lack of aggressive buying from new investors, defined as those who have held Bitcoin for less than six months, is another sign that the market is not in the final stages of a bull run. In previous cycles, new investors accumulated large amounts of Bitcoin at market highs, which often signaled a price reversal. Currently, new investors hold about 50% of the total value of Bitcoin, a far cry from the 80%-90% seen at the peaks of past bull markets.
Alongside CryptoQuant’s analysis, other industry experts are also forecasting continued price growth for Bitcoin. Galaxy Research recently predicted that Bitcoin could surpass $100,000 in the short term, driven by increasing institutional adoption and the possibility of Bitcoin becoming a reserve asset for nation-states.
Although Bitcoin has faced a minor pullback, the overall market outlook remains highly positive, with Bitcoin poised for further growth and a potential rally to new all-time highs in the coming months.
