Historically, Bitcoin has often needed between 20 and 30 attempts to surpass significant round-number price levels, with this tendency rooted in human psychology. In the crypto world, these key price points carry a heightened emotional significance, and market participants can react with panic-selling if price gains stall near these milestones.
On the other hand, some traders anticipate these reactions, positioning themselves in a way that reinforces the barrier, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy that further complicates breaking through.
At the moment, Bitcoin is facing the psychological $100,000 resistance level, and while earlier analyses have attributed the struggle to factors like profit-taking, selling pressure from short-term holders, and a lack of sufficient demand to push Bitcoin higher, it’s also worth investigating whether a consistent pattern emerges from past data.
An analysis using Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin typically requires multiple attempts to breach such psychological barriers. Specifically, it looked at price movements when Bitcoin came within 2% of a $10,000 multiple.
Bitcoin first closed above the $10,000 mark in December 2017, but after a market crash, it spent several years struggling to regain that level. Bitcoin closed within 2% of $10,000 a total of 21 times before finally breaking through. This represented one of Bitcoin’s longest trading periods within a narrow price range.
Each subsequent $10,000 level saw a similar pattern, with Bitcoin closing within 2% of the target 15 to 30 times before finally pushing past it. This continued through to the $70,000 range.
However, after Donald Trump’s election in November, the pattern shifted. Bitcoin surpassed $80,000 and tested $90,000 only three times before it broke through.
Now, Bitcoin faces the $100,000 level, a completely new frontier. It has already closed within 2% of this level on November 21 and 22, raising the question of whether Bitcoin will revert to its historical pattern, requiring 20 attempts to break through, or if this time, it will exceed expectations and break through on the third try.
