Bitcoin’s Bull Market Progresses: ARK Invest Predicts $124K by Year-End
Bitcoin’s recent retreat to $95,000 after nearly breaking the $100,000 barrier isn’t a sign of weakness but rather a pause before another surge, says David Puell, research associate at ARK Invest. Speaking with CoinDesk, Puell provided insights into the cryptocurrency’s trajectory, predicting a strong finish to 2024.
“We expect Bitcoin to reach between $104,000 and $124,000 by year’s end,” Puell said, adding that this outlook is not investment advice but an informed estimate based on market trends.
Mid-Cycle Momentum
Puell’s forecast hinges on Bitcoin’s historical behavior during bull markets, often referred to as seasonality, as well as on-chain data tracking market sentiment and activity. He believes the current market phase represents the midpoint of a broader cycle.
“We’re about 55% to 65% of the way through the bull market,” Puell explained, estimating a potential peak between $126,000 and $134,000 based on existing metrics. These targets, however, could climb if market conditions accelerate.
Maturing Asset, Slower Growth
Puell acknowledged that Bitcoin’s potential returns are becoming more subdued as the asset matures. A peak of $134,000 would mark a doubling of Bitcoin’s previous high of $69,000 in 2021, a notable decline from the tripling seen in earlier cycles.
“Diminishing returns are a natural part of Bitcoin’s evolution as it becomes a more established asset,” Puell noted. ARK Invest is prepared for this possibility, but Puell pointed out that current data doesn’t yet confirm the trend.
Long-Term Vision Unchanged
While near-term targets are conservative, ARK Invest remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential. Earlier this year, CEO Cathie Wood forecast Bitcoin reaching $1 million to $1.5 million by 2030, with a baseline estimate of $650,000.
Short-term outcomes, Puell said, will depend heavily on external factors, including Federal Reserve policy, SEC regulations, and broader macroeconomic trends. He also highlighted the possibility of Bitcoin being adopted as a strategic reserve asset by governments, a development he likened to “adding an entirely new layer of value to the market.”
The Inevitable Pullback
Despite the optimism, Puell cautioned that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature makes another bear market likely. Previous cycles have seen Bitcoin lose up to 70% of its value after hitting an all-time high.
“The eventual bottom will depend on how high Bitcoin climbs during this cycle,” Puell said, urging caution even as optimism grows.
As Bitcoin approaches critical price levels, ARK Invest’s analysis underscores the delicate balance between the asset’s potential for extraordinary gains and its susceptibility to significant corrections.
