As Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) options contracts worth billions of dollars approach their expiration date this Friday, traders are bracing for a potential surge in volatility. The expiry will take place on the Deribit exchange at 08:00 UTC on November 29, 2024, right after the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.
A significant portion of Bitcoin’s expiring options—around 45%, valued at approximately $4.2 billion—are “in the money,” with the majority being call options, which could lead to substantial price moves as traders seek to realize their gains. Similar spikes in volatility were seen in October when over $4 billion in options expired, pushing Bitcoin’s price down by 3%.
Many traders are watching closely as the max pain price for Bitcoin sits around $78,000, far below the current market price of more than $98,000, which is creating an imbalance and could prompt market makers to hedge their positions by buying more Bitcoin, potentially triggering a rally. The vast majority of out-of-the-money options are bearish, primarily in puts, which could be linked to hedging strategies against downside risk rather than outright bearish bets.
Given these dynamics, Bitcoin’s market could see heightened activity as expiration draws near, with the possibility of pushing the price towards the $100,000 mark if market makers engage in further hedging.
